Density and climate effects on age-specific survival and population growth: consequences for hibernating mammals
Corresponding Author
F. J. Combe
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
Correspondence
Fraser J. Combe, Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester, Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD, UK.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorJ. S. Ellis
School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
Search for more papers by this authorJ. Norrey
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
Search for more papers by this authorW. E. Harris
Agriculture and Environment Sciences Department, Harper Adams University, Newport, UK
Search for more papers by this authorCorresponding Author
F. J. Combe
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
Correspondence
Fraser J. Combe, Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester, Metropolitan University, Manchester M1 5GD, UK.
Email: [email protected]
Search for more papers by this authorJ. S. Ellis
School of Biological and Marine Sciences, University of Plymouth, Plymouth, UK
Search for more papers by this authorJ. Norrey
Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
Search for more papers by this authorW. E. Harris
Agriculture and Environment Sciences Department, Harper Adams University, Newport, UK
Search for more papers by this authorEditor: Rahel Sollmann
Abstract
The impact of factors such as density dependence, food availability and weather are known to be important for predicting population change in a wide range of species. However, a challenge in ecology is understanding the contributory and interactive role of these drivers on populations. This is necessary to design effective conservation and management strategies. Using data from long-term studies of five hazel dormouse Muscardinus avellanarius populations in Europe, we tested the relationship between population density and weather and their impact on demographic rates. We used an integrated population modelling approach, estimating age-specific overwinter survival, annual population growth and fecundity rates. We found strong negative effects of population density, precipitation and winter temperature on population growth rates. This suggests that warmer and wetter weather negatively affects dormouse survival for both adults and juveniles, but we found subtle differences in these effects between age classes. We also identified an interaction between weather measures and population density on age-specific survival, possibly as a result of weather impacts during hibernation. Although we found low winter temperature was positively associated with population growth, we found evidence consistent with density dependence. We discuss our results in the context of woodland habitat conservation management.
Supporting Information
| Filename | Description |
|---|---|
| acv12843-sup-0001-Supinfo.docxWord 2007 document , 597.7 KB | Table S1. Glossary of variables used for climate analyses. Random Forest analyses indicated the top ranked variables that explained variation in the data. Variables in bold* were removed from further analyses after Random Forest analyses and the top 10 variables were kept for climate analyses. Table S2. Regression coefficient (adj.R2) as the strength of density dependence evaluated against zero (Slope) and significance values (P). A negative coefficient indicates negative density dependence characterised by a decrease in population growth rate as population abundance increases Table S3. Environmental variables collated for each population displayed as mean (min, max) Table S4. Model averaging results for all populations investigating population growth rate, fecundity and survival of Adults and Juveniles. Model averaging results are shown with effect sizes (β) and standard error (SE) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Model terms with 95% confidence intervals not intersecting zero are shown in bold and were considered to explain significant patterns in the data as detailed in Grueber et al. (2011). For definition of explanatory variables see Supplementary Table S1. Figure S1. Graphical representation of an Integrated Population Model for the hazel dormouse, adapted from Abadi et al. (2010). Arrows demonstrate dependency between nodes and sub-models are represented by dotted rectangles. Node notations: R, number of nest counts; J, Juvenile counts each capture occasion; f, fecundity – number of young produced per adult; Sjuv, Juvenile survival probability; Sad, adult survival probability; m, CMR data; Pm, capture probability of marked individuals; y, population count data; σ2, observation error on count data; N, true population abundance. Figure S2. Testing assumptions of linearity and homoscedasticity for each linear model. Plot of residuals verses predicted (i.e. fitted) values. Residuals are spread equally around horizontal line and qqplots signify normality. |
Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.
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